Following Microsoft’s end of support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2024, the PC market experienced a noticeable shift, which was reflected in the positions of key processor manufacturers. Despite Microsoft and Intel’s active promotion of next-generation AI-powered laptops — the so-called Copilot+ PCs — users are increasingly choosing alternatives. Mac shipments increased by 14.9% YoY in the third quarter, demonstrating a growing preference for Apple’s ecosystem of PC Momentum Builds.
The market reacted negatively, with ES futures reflecting cooling investor interest in the technology sector amid data on slowing demand for AI devices. The pressure has increased due to the weak performance of Microsoft and Intel securities, which are often seen as barometers of the health of the enterprise and PC markets. Nevertheless, the correction remains within the technical range, suggesting that long-term confidence in AI is largely intact.
Total PC shipments increased by 8.1% YoY in the third quarter, driven by two key factors: the need to replace outdated systems that are not compatible with Windows 11 and companies’ desire to replenish stocks before the potential new import duties from Donald Trump’s administration are introduced. However, while Lenovo, Asus, and HP took advantage of this wave, showing growth from 10 to 17%, Dell and several other manufacturers reported declines. The AI devices Microsoft relied on have yet to drive demand as buyers continue to focus on traditional parameters such as performance, energy efficiency, and stability for PC Momentum Builds.
This situation is especially critical for Intel, which has recently undergone internal upheaval. During a quarterly reporting meeting, CEO Lip-Bu Tan outlined a strategic shift toward inference, where processing trained AI models demands different architectures than training. According to him, this market is expected to become dominant in the coming years, and Intel intends to secure a stable position within it.
Moreover, the company aims to ensure that the Intel platform is chosen for AI inference and will collaborate with both major players and emerging firms shaping this computing paradigm. He emphasized that this is a multi-year initiative to integrate AI capabilities into Xeon, GPU, Arc, and consumer PC lines, with annual GPU updates optimized for inference.
Nevertheless, these initiatives have yet to resonate with consumers. Devices with Copilot+ support and built-in NPUs remain a niche market, and buyers are reluctant to overpay for features they rarely use. Meanwhile, the demand for classic Intel Raptor Lake processors is growing, reflecting users’ conservatism during this transition phase of PC Momentum Builds.
In 2025, AI PC shipments are expected to rise due to the release of Qualcomm Snapdragon X2 Elite chips and the advancement of Intel’s Xe3 graphics architecture. Many companies are already incorporating future AI performance requirements into their procurement strategies to avoid falling behind technologically in the years to come.
For Intel, this represents both an opportunity and a risk. If the inference strategy succeeds, the company will be able to regain lost initiative and lift the profit margins of its corporate solutions. But if consumers continue to shift towards Apple and ARM-based systems, the company may face intensified pressure, especially amid rising competition from AMD and Qualcomm, a trend visible on the stock heatmap and increasingly reflected in Dow Jones index sector rotations away from legacy hardware names.
Further, Intel’s dynamics will largely depend on whether the company succeeds in reaffirming its leadership ambitions in the data segment and turning the AI agenda from a strategic declaration into a sustainable source of profit.
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